CIVICUS speaks about Chad’s upcoming presidential election with Remadji Hoinathy, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies’s (ISS) Regional Office for West Africa.
Established in 1991, the ISS is an African multidisciplinary human security organisation that works with partners to build knowledge and skills to support sustainable peace, development and prosperity in Africa.
What’s at stake in Chad’s upcoming presidential election?
What’s at stake in the election is the credibility and quality of election processes and people’s interest and participation in the campaign. Also concerning is the degree to which the president elected under the current conditions will be legitimate. If results are contested, it could lead to political violence.
Beyond these immediate concerns, Chad’s future trajectory is at stake. If open political debate and alternative leadership are not fostered, the country risks reverting to historical patterns of rebellion and armed conflict as a favoured means of resisting and seeking power.
Since 2021, when longtime president Idriss Déby, in power since a 1990 coup, was killed in action, there’s been a military-backed transitional government led by his son, Mahamat Déby, who is now running for president. This election should mark the end of the transitional phase, but several factors cast doubt on the likelihood that democracy will result.
What are the indicators that the election won’t be free and fair?
The National Agency for the Management of Elections lacks autonomy. While on paper it’s meant to operate independently, the process to appoint its members heavily favours the ruling party. The Constitutional Council, tasked with evaluating candidates and certifying election results, also lacks impartiality. This all erodes the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Political violence, including the recent assassination of an opposition leader, also sends a chilling message to dissenting voices and raises concerns about the fairness of the election.
There is little room for genuine competition. Out of 10 candidates, there’s two who focus on better governance, equity and justice. Their platforms address pressing issues, including the lack of basic services such as electricity and water, as well as ongoing strikes in critical sectors such as education and health. In contrast, the incumbent president promises stability and security. While their candidacies were accepted, opposition candidates face challenges, including violence and strong control over the public sphere by the ruling party.
We must recognise that simply holding an election doesn’t mean there’s democracy, particularly if the election lacks genuine competition and meaningful participation. Ultimately, it’s Chad’s future hanging in the balance. If the current trend persists and power remains concentrated in the hands of the ruling party, there’s little prospect of genuine political change.
What roles is civil society playing in fostering a democratic transition?
When discussing Chad’s civil society, it’s important to acknowledge its evolution. Initially, civil society flourished and advocated strongly for democratic change. During the transition period, a coalition called Wakit tama emerged to push for democracy, freedom and citizen empowerment.
But those in power made concerted efforts to undermine its influence. The military initially promised a transition that would conclude in October 2022, but then launched the Inclusive and Sovereign National Dialogue that was held between August and October 2022 and extended the transition by two years and validated the eligibility of transition authorities. After the dialogue, the government cracked down on civil society. Many organisations had to stop their work and many leaders and members of civil society were forced into exile.
In response to the flawed electoral process, Wakit tama and other civil society platforms have called for a boycott, urging people to abstain from voting in an election they view as lacking legitimacy.
It’s also worth noting that there are also civil society organisations aligned with the government. The state funds them to counterbalance dissenting voices. However, the public is generally able to distinguish between the civil society that advocates for people’s interests and that aligned with the government’s agenda.
What are your expectations for the post-election period?
The election seems orchestrated to ensure the permanence of the transitional president.
Conditions for civil society in Chad are already challenging, with the government employing repression against political and civil society dissenters alike. Unfortunately, the election will likely further worsen the situation.
If Déby gains legitimacy through the election, he will only strengthen his power and further restrictions on civic space are likely to follow.
How can the international community support a transition to democracy in Chad?
Under the current circumstances, there is no simple answer to this question. The international community has already provided funding and diplomatic support for the election to take place, and at this point the dice are already loaded.
However, it is imperative to continue advocating for future leaders to open the door to fairer election processes, at least for the coming local and legislative elections, and international solidarity plays a pivotal role in this. It’s essential for people in local civil society and human rights defenders to feel protected and connected to the international community. In a country like Chad, where literacy rates are low, civil society plays a vital role in educating and mobilising the public. With adequate support and training, civil society personnel can play a significant role in advocating for democracy and fostering positive change, albeit over time. Without such support and action, prospects for democratic progress will be uncertain.
Civic space in Chad is rated ‘repressed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
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