CIVICUS speaks with Tessa Dooms, Programmes Director at Rivonia Circle, about the upcoming general election in South Africa.
Established in 2022, Rivonia Circle is a think tank that seeks to create spaces for political engagement and the development of political agency beyond political parties and elections by focusing on issues of democratic governance.
What’s at stake in this election?
This election isn’t just about which political party gets most votes: it’s about whether South Africans still believe in democracy and its ability to bring about change. We’re facing a multidimensional crisis – an economic, social and human rights crisis – so when it comes to election issues everything seems a big deal because there’s so much to be done. Even infrastructure and service delivery are under scrutiny. There are many pressing issues that people feel are critical.
We’ve been conducting what we call voter conversations, encouraging voters to talk about the election. Just yesterday, in a small meeting of no more than 15 people in Kliptown, near Johannesburg, we asked two groups to identify the top three election issues. Each group came up with three different issues, and all felt passionately they were the most important ones. And that’s just out of a group of 15 people. So lots of things seem to be at the forefront of people’s minds.
But what’s really at stake is democracy itself. People want to see that the democratic process can truly steer South Africa in new directions. Many, particularly young people, have become disillusioned with democracy. They feel it isn’t functioning as promised and elections are meaningless, as they have predetermined outcomes that offer no inspiration. We need this election to show that when voters turn out, change can happen. Politicians aren’t the only key players in an election; it’s ultimately up to voters, citizens and communities to bring about change. That’s the key message.
If we come out of this election with the status quo intact, with power dynamics among parties unchanged and with parties feeling complacent and comfortable, we risk having people, particularly young people, question whether democracy truly serves everyone. That would be dangerous.
How have election rules changed?
While the basic rules governing elections have remained the same, a significant recent development is the ability of people to run as independent candidates following a landmark 2020 Constitutional Court ruling. The judgment declared it unconstitutional to restrict candidacy for national and provincial seats to party members. As a result, 11 independent candidates will vie for seats in the election, offering voters additional choices and challenging the traditional party-centric narrative.
Requirements for candidates to gather signatures have also been increased. Parties will now need up to 60,000 signatures across all provinces to run nationally. This increases the effort and commitment required for political participation.
In addition, changes to the electoral process add a new layer of complexity and choice. The introduction of a third ballot marks a departure from the traditional two-ballot system. Voters will now be presented with multiple options, with the first two ballots focusing on the National Assembly. This change allows voters to support two different entities for the National Assembly. At the provincial level, voters will still be able to choose between parties and independent candidates.
Alongside these developments, there are technical adjustments voters will need to navigate. For example, the requirement to vote at designated polling stations is a departure from past practice and will require increased voter awareness and preparation to ensure effective participation.
How have the dynamics of participation changed from previous elections?
There has been a remarkable increase in the number of participating parties and people. Going into 2019 national elections, South Africa counted around 200 registered political parties. Now this number has skyrocketed to over 500, representing a profound increase in political engagement and diversity. This increase isn’t just limited to party registrations. The political arena has witnessed the emergence of numerous new political entities, with at least 500 political formations created. This proliferation is indicative of a highly politicised environment and reflects a society actively exploring new avenues for political representation.
The upcoming elections will see 52 parties on the national ballot paper, an increase of four to five parties compared to the last national election. In addition, some 90 parties will contest provincial elections, reflecting a growing interest and participation in the political process at various levels.
Overall, South Africa’s evolving electoral landscape reflects a society grappling with new forms of political representation and engagement. While the changes to electoral rules offer greater choice and diversity, they also present challenges voters must navigate to ensure their voices are heard. This also encourages them to explore local representation, seeking voices closely connected to their communities and concerns.
What do the polls say about the likely outcome?
While polls are undoubtedly useful, and over the years reputable pollsters have predicted results quite accurately, I don’t believe polls will provide a good gauge of the outcome in this election. One of the main reasons for this is the significant number of new voters, about 1.2 million. I don’t think the polls accurately capture the feelings of these voters.
Also, the number of options available makes this election much more unpredictable, as does the existence of two national ballots. For example, someone might tell a pollster they plan to vote for the Economic Liberation Movement, but on the second ballot they might vote for the Women’s First Party. Polls aren’t taking this into account, so predictions based on polls will be limited.
Although we may need to reconsider our reliance on polls as we navigate this election, it continues to be crucial to discuss projections, particularly in terms of how voters can influence them and how parties use them to sway voters, emphasising the importance of some votes over others.
Many projections are based on past turnout, which hasn’t been particularly high. Parties focus on mobilising their core supporters, often overlooking the millions of undecided voters who will have a significant impact on the outcome of the election. These undecided voters represent the majority and can make the election unpredictable for those who think they have it all figured out.
For instance, in the 2019 election, about 10 million eligible voters didn’t show up to register. Imagine if those who didn’t register had participated; the result might have been different. Similarly, of around 26 million people who registered, 10 million didn’t vote. The party that won the most votes nationally received about 10 million votes. This illustrates the potential impact of turnout on the election result.
That’s why it’s so important for undecided voters and those who don’t belong to a political party to talk to each other and encourage each other to vote. We need to encourage voter conversations to motivate people to turn out and vote, regardless of their choice. A higher turnout will make the election more unpredictable and shake up the status quo, which I think will be the most exciting aspect of this election.
What role is disinformation playing?
There’s been a lot of disinformation about the election, particularly about the Electoral Commission (IEC) and its credibility. The IEC isn’t flawless, as evidenced by the fact that there were up to 12 key challenges to its processes. But despite its imperfections, the courts have consistently ruled in the IEC’s favour, maintaining its credibility even in imperfect situations.
It’s crucial the IEC and the media maintain transparency and strive to be as open and forthcoming as possible. The media has a particularly important role to play in ensuring the IEC addresses people’s concerns and questions openly and honestly. While the IEC’s credibility has rarely been questioned in national or provincial elections, to maintain public confidence it’s essential for the institution to be transparent and responsive.
There’s been a notable abuse of new systems and court cases to undermine the electoral process. It’s important to stress the value of facts and evidence in these discussions. If there are allegations about parties not meeting signature requirements or other issues, it’s important to provide factual evidence to support these claims. Narratives based on disinformation or unsubstantiated claims risk undermining the election’s credibility.
In the face of such challenges, it’s vital to hold individuals and organisations accountable for their statements and actions. People should be encouraged to seek clarification directly from the IEC and media, and to engage constructively in public discourse. Spreading conspiracy theories without evidence only undermines the integrity of the electoral process, and it’s important to address and challenge such behaviour whenever it occurs.
How is civil society involved in the election?
Civil society organisations (CSOs), including ourselves, are working together to encourage greater collaboration and active participation in this election.
Traditionally, many in civil society have viewed elections as a time to remain quiet, only intervening after an election is over to engage with the elected government so as not to influence the outcome. However, there’s a shift taking place. The emerging narrative suggests that if we want to engage with the government that emerges from these political processes, we need to engage with the political parties while they’re vying for power. We should use our resources and ability to mobilise people to promote political engagement, empowering people and communities to mobilise around issues that matter to them, beyond the agendas of political parties.
Over the past year, we’ve been in discussions with CSOs across the country and have witnessed various campaigns that have proven to be incredibly beneficial. For example, the Civil Society Moot Group, in partnership with the Kagiso Trust, has invested resources in voter education, explaining voting procedures and system changes, working closely with the IEC. Organisations such as the Groundwork Collective, led by Mbali Ntuli, initially focused on voter registration and now contribute to election monitoring initiatives. Defend Our Democracy has formed a coalition of CSOs to do election observation work, adding credibility to the process.
In the Rivonia district, we’ve launched the ‘We, the Voters’ campaign. With this initiative, we aim to empower voters to engage in conversations by producing a toolkit that facilitates community discussions through a board game. We’re distributing these games to different communities and sharing them through our social media channels. We’ve produced a documentary featuring nine voters discussing their motivations for voting, to encourage conversation. We’ve also developed a chatbot to answer election-related questions.
Our aim is to give people different ways to engage with the election on their terms. The role of civil society isn’t to dictate voting preferences, but to encourage and enable voters to make informed choices. This approach is becoming more common in civil society.
What are the conditions for civil society in South Africa?
South African civil society is undergoing a transformation. But the change required is not like what’s happening in the business sector, with its focus on racial transformation. It’s more about promoting an inclusive transformation.
Over the years, civil society has adopted a somewhat more collaborative approach, although there are still some prominent organisations that stand out, often referred to as the ‘blue chips’ of civil society. I believe there’s an urgent need to change the way we support civil society.
We should seek to reduce our reliance on external resources and instead cultivate support from within. There’s also an urgent need for increased investment in community-based organising. While resources have been directed towards litigation and policy engagement, community organising has been somewhat overlooked. Yet I see it as crucial for the future.
When we talk about organising for change at scale, we often think of political party structures or protest movements. But I believe we need to explore new and innovative approaches to organising for change. This election serves as a litmus test for civil society’s ability to drive change through means beyond protest or political advocacy.
Civic space in South Africa is rated ‘obstructed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
Get in touch with Rivonia Circle through its website, Instagram or Facebook pages, and follow @rivonia_circle and @Tessa_Dooms on Twitter.
