CIVICUS speaks about snap elections taking place in the Netherlands on 22 November with Niels Hoogerheijde, Policy Advisor at Partos, the Dutch membership body for civil society organisations (CSOs) working in international development.
Why is the Netherlands having snap elections?
In the Netherlands, we have a tradition of coalition governments. Prime Minister Mark Rutte has led several coalition governments for the past 13 years but announced he would depart in July. The current coalition, led by the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie, VVD), has remained unchanged for the past six years but has had plenty of internal disagreements, including on the regulation of nitrogen emissions and on asylum and migration.
At the beginning of July, the coalition fell over the issue of refugees reuniting with their families and Rutte concluded that it would be better for him and his party if he stepped down and called snap elections. The VVD now has a new leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius.
What are the main election issues?
The VVD wants to make asylum a campaign issue because it takes a very tough line on migration and has a strong profile on this issue. However, many people disagree, believing the problem is not migration per se but poor political choices best exemplified by continuing cuts in the budgets of our national refugee reception agencies under successive Rutte governments. Due to these budget cuts we are unable to provide refugees with a roof over their head. It has become a recurring sight in the Netherlands to see refugees sleeping outside on the grass in front of reception centres. If not for the budget cuts implemented by Rutte and his colleagues, we would have been perfectly able to house asylum seekers and migrants coming to the Netherlands.
Many other parties want the election to be about other topics entirely – and particularly, in a context of rising cost of living, about bestaanszekerheid: socioeconomic security. This has been a major issue for parties such as the New Social Contract (NSC), led by former Christian Democrat Pieter Omtzigt, and GroenLinks-PvdA, an alliance between the Green and Labour parties led by former European Commission vice president Frans Timmermans.
Oddly enough, however, some issues that are on the top of voters’ agendas, such as climate and healthcare, have been barely talked about in this election campaign.
Overall, people in the Netherlands want things to be different. They want education, healthcare and housing to be more affordable and the minimum wage to increase. They are being led astray by many politicians who say they care about their interests, but really, when you look at their programmes, they do not go far enough. People are fed up with 13 years of VVD policy and want real change.
Is there any candidate that represents real change?
There are several new candidates, but whether they represent ‘real change’ is a very personal opinion. Although the VVD has a new leader and candidate, she does not really represent change. The VVD is struggling to come up with new ideas and set out its policy plans. One new plan they did come up with is that Yeşilgöz now advocates for drastic cuts of about €5.5 billion (approx. US$6 billion) to the development cooperation budget. This would be bad news for people in the global south. Further, we did the math and found that if Yeşilgöz were to actually implement these cuts, the VVD would not be able to achieve its own international goals.
Under Timmermans, the social democrats and greens have come up with a joint programme and candidate list to promote themselves as the big left-wing block in an attempt to regain power; the Netherlands hasn’t had a government led by a left-wing party for 21 years. In principle at least, Timmermans represents change. However, as it stands in the polls, he would not be able to form a government solely made up of left-wing parties. He would need to find one or more big coalition partners from the right-wing block. This would make it very difficult for him to achieve real change.
And there is a third new candidate: NSC leader Omtzigt. He is really the new kid on the block, although he has been in politics for almost 20 years. According to the latest polls, his party is neck and neck with the VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA. His priorities are related to the cost of living, and he is trying to attract people from both left and right. But his programme is very vague. For instance, he talks about raising the minimum wage, but he does not say by how much, while other parties have committed to raising it to €16 or €18 (approx. US$17.5 to US$19.7) per hour. I doubt he will actually stand for what he says and bring real change.
How has civil society engaged with the election process?
CSOs have organised debates with candidates and politicians, which have been very insightful. Two weeks ago we organised a debate with politicians who have a background in international affairs. The debate focused on international development cooperation, the Dutch climate footprint and our trade practices. There were very illuminating exchanges as politicians put forward their proposals without going down the usual route that you see in the big debates, of personal attacks or disingenuous attacks on each other.
Civil society is also creating what we call ‘voting assistants’. These do not give voting advice, but rank political parties on issues related to civil society’s priorities. For instance, feminist organisations rank parties on women’s rights issues and climate and environmental organisations rank them on their key issues, giving them a score ranging from red to green, depending on how much that issue has been present in their programme and their past actions. This is good work traditionally done by civil society.
Most recently, on 12 November, there was a large-scale March for Climate and Justice, the biggest climate march in the history of the Netherlands, with around 80,000 participants. It was organised by several CSOs grouped in the Climate Crisis Coalition. Protesters of all ages came to Amsterdam to protest for climate justice and a fair and sustainable society. Many CSOs were present as well, as part of a campaign, organised by Partos and others, for a more humane, just and sustainable political climate.
Is there any indication of what government coalition could form, and when?
In my opinion, the coalition most likely to be formed is a right-wing coalition, composed of the VVD and NSC along with two or three right-wing parties. I think this shift to the right would be disastrous – a betrayal to all the people voting for Omtzigt in the hope he will do something about the cost of living. But the right wing is where Omtzigt’s affiliation really lies.
There are other, less likely possibilities. A coalition government could form under the leadership of GroenLinks-PvdA with VVD and NSC and maybe one additional smaller party. Although GroenLinks-PvdA could in theory then secure the position of prime minister, this coalition would still lean mostly towards the right, so it’s difficult to see how it would realise their promises on climate and socioeconomic security.
The third option would have GroenLinks-PvdA together with NSC without the VVD, but instead accompanied by one or two parties from the centre-left or centre-right. It is unlikely that Omtzigt would be content with securing a majority for a left-wing coalition, so he would probably insist on bringing in a centre-right party. Again, in such a coalition, bringing about real change on the issue of climate justice or socioeconomic security will be very difficult.
What complicates the government formation process is that there are 19 political parties and 150 parliamentary seats, which means a majority requires 76 seats. If you want to exclude a big party, you have to get a lot of smaller parties on board, making the coalition a lot more fragile. It is really difficult to say what will happen, but I think we will end up with a right-wing coalition government. But having a fully formed government usually takes months. Last time it took almost a year.
Although there are many reasons to be pessimistic about the eventual outcome of the elections, I refuse to believe that Dutch people no longer care about those in need, whether it is unhoused people, refugees or people in the global south. At the beginning of the year, people organised actions all across the country to raise money for the victims of earthquakes in Syria and Turkey. Some 200,000 people have signed a petition calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. A week ago, 80,000 people marched for a fair and sustainable society. Therefore, despite the likely election result, among many people a strong sense of solidarity endures with those who are left behind.
Civic space in the Netherlands is rated ‘open’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
Get in touch with Partos through its webpage, and follow @PartosNL on Instagram and Twitter.
