CIVICUS speaks with Spanish political scientist and political consultant Eva Silván about the recent re-election of Pedro Sánchez as Spanish prime minister at the head of a coalition with left-wing and pro-independence parties, in a country deeply divided by the Catalonia issue.
How did socialist Pedro Sánchez manage to win a new mandate rather than a government that included the far right being formed?
On 28 May 2023, municipal and regional elections were held in Spain. The results showed a political map clearly favourable to the centre-right Popular Party (PP), which received some 750,000 more votes than the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE), from which it snatched almost all local power. The PP regained six of the 10 regional governments that were in the hands of the PSOE, but in five of them – Aragón, Baleares, Cantabria, Comunidad Valenciana and Extremadura – it needed the support of the extreme right-wing party Vox to reach a majority that allowed it to form a government. The PSOE was only able to retain three of the 17 regional governments: Castilla la Mancha, Navarra and the Principality of Asturias.
Faced with this result, the following day socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made a surprise move, bringing forward general elections, scheduled for the end of the year, to 23 July. This served to curb internal contestation at the loss of territorial power. It was the first time that general elections have been held in July, in the middle of summer. These elections found an exhausted citizenry and political class, and came as Spain started its mandate at the head of the European Union.
The context seemed favourable for the PP, as the results of the May elections seemed to anticipate an epochal shift. In the first weeks polls were indeed favourable to the PP. But its signing of government agreements with Vox brought a reaction of rejection among a very large part of public opinion, which mobilised in fear that the entry of the far right into government would mean a setback for hard-won rights.
The PP also erred by focusing its electoral campaign on Sánchez and his alleged lies and shifts of position. This did not serve to mobilise the electorate and ended up working against the PP when the some of the arguments put forward by its leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, were exposed as false in the only election debate he took part in.
Sánchez, for his part, ran a campaign in which he showed leadership, had an extensive media presence, including in outlets that had been hostile to his government, and spearheaded a social media campaign that enabled him to connect with new audiences. This, together with fear of the far right, ended up isolating the PP, which although it took the most votes performed much worse than expected.
Having come first, Feijóo was given the task of forming a government, but he was unable to gather enough support. Vox’s backing did not suffice, and no other party wanted to be part of a government that included the far right.
What will be the costs of the alliances formed by Sánchez to retain government?
The political landscape resulting from the 23 July elections called for agreements. No party received sufficient support for its candidate to be elected prime minister without the backing of other political forces.
Once Feijóo’s attempt to form a coalition government failed, it was the turn of Sánchez, who sought agreements with the nationalist parties in the Basque Country, Catalonia and Galicia.
Throughout his career, Sánchez has shown great flexibility and adaptability: he knows how to read the situation and decide what to do to develop a progressive agenda that allows him to govern. In this case, this included admitting the possibility of an amnesty law for politicians prosecuted or tried for promoting Catalan independence, which during the campaign he denied he would do.
The support gathered by the new government is the clearest manifestation of the fact that, following the break-up of the two-party system and the emergence of a multi-party politics, we have entered a stage of bloc politics characterised by polarisation, with two blocs led by the PP and the PSOE whose identities are defined not so much in terms of the left-right divide as in territorial terms.
According to available data, the PSOE’s alliance with two pro-Catalan independence parties, Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya and Junts per Catalunya, has the majority support of Catalan society, and the same is true in the Basque Country. In fact, the PSOE won the most votes in these two territories in the general elections.
In the case of the Basque Country, the agreements reached between the PSOE and the nationalist forces are based on the transfer within two years of competences provided for in previous agreements, in addition to some longstanding demands such as the transfer of the financial management of social security and the development of an autonomous framework for labour relations.
In Catalonia, the agreements focus on the transfer of the management of commuter trains and an increase in public resources earmarked for Catalonia or a debt write-off, a move that has been strongly rejected by the PP and Vox. And specifically in relation to Junts, the agreement was possible thanks to the PSOE’s promise, already fulfilled, to send an amnesty bill to parliament. In the event that the law is approved and then ratified by the Constitutional Court, it will put an end to the criminal status of all politicians involved in calling a Catalan independence referendum in 2017 and allow the return to Spain of separatist leader Carles Puigdemont, more than five years after he settled in Belgium, evading justice.
How has the public reacted to the agreement?
The amnesty law is, broadly, supported or rejected on the basis of geography. The biggest demonstrations against it have taken place in cities governed by the PP, while elsewhere they have been very small.
As soon as it became known that there was going to be an agreement between PSOE and Junts, demonstrations and violent protests began outside the PSOE’s headquarters. Demonstrations by far-right groups included anti-constitutional symbols and flags and fascist and xenophobic chants. In competing for the leadership of anti-amnesty demonstrations, the PP called for Sunday demonstrations that were more peaceful in tone, but equally firm in their opposition.
According to polling data, a majority of public opinion rejects the amnesty law. None of the government’s arguments in support of the law have public approval. The amnesty divides PSOE voters and unites those of the PP and Vox.
A survey published in October found that 57 per cent of people rejected the amnesty. A more recent poll finds that support is concentrated among voters of the left-wing coalition Sumar and pro-autonomy parties. Territorially, there is majority support only in Catalonia and the Basque Country.
Arguments against the amnesty law range from very simplistic claims, such as that it will ‘break Spain apart’, to legal arguments centred on the privilege it would entail for the accused and the violation of the principle of equality before the law. In contrast, Sánchez’s arguments underline the opportunity to advance coexistence among Spaniards and resolve a problem that has divided Spanish society for the past decade. It is undoubtedly one of Sánchez’s riskiest moves since he became prime minister, both in the public eye and within his party.
What are the main problems that should be tackled by the incoming government?
This will be the period of plurinationality. Territory will become the backbone of Spanish politics.
But there are other important issues. One of them, which also causes fierce debate and has been demanded by the European Commission, is the renewal of the judiciary. The mandate of the Council of the Judiciary, tasked with ensuring judicial independence, expired five years ago, leading to its biggest institutional and reputational crisis since the transition.
The main issues of concern to Spanish society are inflation, access to housing, healthcare and the situation of young people. Spain is among the European countries where it takes the longest time for young people to get jobs and become independent. The new government will have to find ways to improve the productivity of the Spanish economy, promote measures to tackle climate change and deal with a socio-demographic reality affected by a falling birthrate and an ageing population.
The two parties that form the coalition government, PSOE and Sumar, dominate the progressive side of the political spectrum. Their government agreement seeks to advance the policies already promoted in the previous administration, with social measures such as the gradual reduction of the working week to 37.5 hours, the extension of paternity and maternity leave to 20 weeks, an increase in the public housing stock for affordable rentals and the commitment to continue raising the minimum wage. They also push for measures to respond to climate change, such as reducing domestic flights on routes with rail alternatives that take under two and a half hours and the production of cheap and clean renewable energy. It remains to be seen whether these measures receive the support of the rest of the parties that allowed the formation of this government, particularly those on the centre-right axis such as the Basque Nationalist Party and Junts.
Civic space in Spain is rated ‘narrowed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
Get in touch with Eva Silván through her website and follow @silvan_miracle on Twitter.
