CIVICUS speaks about Mexico’s 2 June general elections with Luis Eduardo Medina Torres, professor and elections researcher in the Department of Sociology at the Metropolitan Autonomous University of Mexico.
What’s at stake in the 2 June elections, and who are the main candidates?
General elections, both presidential and legislative, will be held on 2 June. At stake are the presidency, the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and the 132 seats in the Senate.
At the same time, 31 state legislatures, nine governorships and numerous mayorships will be elected. These sub-national elections are important for the governance of each district.
The presidential election is the most prominent, although its dynamics are replicated in the competition for governorships and other offices. There are two main coalitions and a third party competing independently. The ruling coalition is made up of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the party founded by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico and the Labour Party. The opposition coalition is made up of the Institutional Revolutionary Party, the National Action Party and the Party of the Democratic Revolution. The third party, Citizen Movement, has no expectation of winning the presidency but hopes to gain seats in the Federal Congress.
The two coalitions have important differences on economic and security policy, and some similarities when it comes to continuing social programmes.
The programme of the ruling coalition, led by Claudia Sheinbaum, focuses on maintaining current social programmes, continuing major public works started by the current government, such as the Felipe Ángeles International Airport and the Tabasco refinery, and maintaining its security policy of ‘hugs, not bullets‘, as the official slogan goes.
The opposition coalition, led by another woman, Xóchitl Gálvez, also supports social programmes, although it proposes targeting them better. On the economic front, it wants to reduce public debt and make it faster and more accessible to open small businesses. On security, it advocates a tougher stance against drug trafficking, including a reform of the National Guard to reduce its militarisation and improve police training, while also focusing on human rights.
How’s the campaign gone so far?
The campaign has been boring. There have been three presidential debates and several gubernatorial debates, including two in Mexico City, which were not very substantive. This was due to the format of the debates, which didn’t allow for any real discussion between the candidates. Meanwhile, party events didn’t attract much interest. The official candidate held a rally in a football stadium, but it wasn’t even half full.
Sadly, the most notable feature of the campaign has been violence, with a high number of candidates killed. At least two independent research centres have systematically counted these events since 2015, and this time the violence has increased significantly.
What are the causes of the violence?
The first cause is the influence of organised crime, particularly drug trafficking, on elections. This happens in other parts of Latin America and the world, but here it has intensified in a worrying way.
The second cause is the federal government’s policy that seeks to solve the violence by rebuilding the social fabric through social programmes. The idea is that improved economic conditions will reduce people’s dependence and vulnerability to drug trafficking. But it’s clear this strategy hasn’t worked. Violence in general, and political violence in particular, has continued to increase. While these programmes are useful in reducing exclusion and poverty, they don’t address the structural causes of violence.
The third factor is the desperation of some candidates to win at all costs, for which they seek any kind of support, legal or illegal. This creates an environment conducive to violence when agreements are not honoured.
Morena controls all the customs offices, including strategic points such as Tapachula in the south and Tijuana in the north. Further, it governs many municipalities and states where there is a lot of political violence, such as Guerrero and Morelos.
All this has created a breeding ground for violence. All political forces have had candidates assassinated.
How interested are voters in the elections?
The elections seem to have generated a moderate level of interest among voters. According to the latest polls, around 66 per cent of voters are aware of the elections and intend to vote, in line with the average turnout in Latin America, which is around 65 per cent. Around 33 per cent express disinterest or lack of information.
Unlike other countries in the region, voting in Mexico is voluntary, so turnout can vary greatly depending on the social and political context. At the moment, the electoral environment is quite polarised. The rhetoric of ‘them against us’ has permeated political discourse, particularly between supporters of President López Obrador and his opponents.
Polarisation is reflected in campaigns and debates and affects people’s perceptions and participation. It tends to discourage the participation of some population groups who, faced with constant confrontation and a lack of constructive dialogue, prefer to abstain. This phenomenon is seen across groups of voters who, while aware of the importance of their vote, feel disillusioned or alienated by the aggressive tone of political debate.
What according to the polls are the likely outcomes?
The polls seem to indicate there will be a combination of continuity and change. The ruling party is likely to win the presidential election, but not by the margin its leaders would like. They expect a double-digit lead, but it’s more likely it’ll win by around eight or nine points. This wouldn’t be a bad result, but it’s not in line with its projections of an overwhelming victory such as López Obrador’s in 2018.
While continuity is likely at the federal executive level, there are likely to be changes at other levels. First, Morena will lose seats in Congress and have to negotiate with the opposition, which it isn’t used to. So far, the government has had the habit of introducing initiatives without any willingness to make any changes, which has resulted in several legislative failures. In a divided government scenario, it will have to compromise to gain legislative support, starting with crucial issues such as the budget. This could lead to a more pluralistic and less polarised legislative environment.
Changes are also expected in local government. Morena has an advantage in southern states such as Chiapas and Tabasco, but faces close competition in other states. Mexico City, currently in Morena’s hands, is fairly evenly divided between government and opposition. The city faces serious problems such as water shortages and subway infrastructure failures. The opposition has seized on these issues, which will make the election very competitive.
Of the nine contested governorships, Morena is expected to end up keeping four, the opposition is expected to win four and the remaining one is expected to go to a third party. Morena currently controls 20 out of 32 states, but this could change. A reduction in Morena’s territorial power could complicate policy implementation at the local level. Interesting years lie ahead, with a political and governance landscape very different from the last six.
These changes can be positive. A greater balance of power can help prevent excesses and encourage negotiation, thereby strengthening democracy.
Civic space in Mexico is rated ‘repressed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
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