CIVICUS discusses the results of elections in Mexico with Anaid Alcázar, a Mexican political scientist and coordinator of the Innovation for Democracy Programme at the Avina Foundation, a global organisation that promotes change in the areas of democratic innovation, fair and regenerative economies and climate action.
Recent elections to choose a successor to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and more than 20,000 public officials at the federal, state and municipal levels were marred by an unprecedented wave of political violence that left dozens of candidates and government officials dead. Against a backdrop of growing threats from organised crime, but also economic stability and successful anti-poverty policies, the ruling party’s candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, comfortably won the presidential election, becoming the first female president in Mexico’s history.
How do the election results mean?
The scenario after the elections combines elements of continuity and change. At the end of outgoing president López Obrador’s six-year term, there are mixed feelings about whether expectations raised by his government have been met. Hopes were high because it was the first left-wing government in decades and was focused on social justice and rights. But there has also been strong criticism from social movements.
Used to being in the opposition to conservative ruling parties such as the Institutional Revolutionary Party, social movements had to adapt to a government that, while implementing social programmes that benefited broad parts of the population, also promoted controversial policies such as mega-infrastructure projects and the militarisation of security. This confused and demoralised social movements, which had to rethink how to continue to defend rights in a changing and often contradictory political context.
Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory was expected. She received over five million more votes than López Obrador had in 2018. However, voter turnout was lower than in 2018 and 2012, pointing to persistent challenges in mobilisation and civic engagement.
The continuity between Sheinbaum’s proposals and López Obrador’s political project is evident. This raises concerns about the likely continuation of militarisation and its impact on civil society and human rights defenders.
However, there is some hope for a change in political style. During the López Obrador administration, there were tensions due to the concentration of presidential power, the co-optation of spaces and the imposition of official discourse, which closed many spaces for dialogue. There is now hope the new government will open more spaces, be more inclusive, address persistent challenges in civic space and encourage the active participation of civil society. However, concerns remain about what it will do with its very large parliamentary majority.
What are the implications of the election of the first female president in the country’s history?
The election of the first female president in Mexico’s history is a significant milestone, but it has brought mixed feelings for the feminist movement. Although Sheinbaum defines herself as a feminist, many feminist activists openly express their distrust and doubt her election will be a breakthrough for feminist causes.
This is due, at least in part, to Sheinbaum’s record as head of the Mexico City government. She did not maintain a fluid dialogue with the feminist movement and instead her tenure saw large feminist demonstrations repressed. Hence the doubts about her real commitment to demands for justice and the campaign against gender violence. The inclusion of people opposed to trans rights in her new cabinet has further polarised opinions within the movement.
The feminist movement expects much more than symbolic change. It expects tangible policies and effective action to address gender issues, building institutions that can deliver gender justice for women and LGBTQI+ people. Sheinbaum faces the challenge of demonstrating her commitment to gender equality and social justice through her actions.
What are the implications of Sheinbaum having a scientific background?
The election of a president with a scientific background is a significant change in the leadership profile. Sheinbaum may have a particular sensitivity to complex and important issues such as climate change and environmental sustainability.
Unfortunately, the expectations raised by her academic experience have not yet been matched by tangible proposals on the environment. During her campaign, Sheinbaum proposed strengthening the petrochemical industry and the production and use of fertilisers. It is unclear how she will reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote renewable energies and protect fragile ecosystems.
López Obrador’s government has focused on fiscal and labour issues rather than environmental policy. There has been a gap in the implementation of sustainable strategies and investment in environmental research. The lack of resources resulting from a policy of austerity limited the capacity of public research institutes to develop and propose improvements in industrial and energy processes.
In summary, Sheinbaum’s background inspires some confidence, but it’s unclear what direction she will take. It is crucial that she demonstrates a clear commitment to sustainability and takes tangible steps to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.
What are the main problems the new government will face and what are its proposals to tackle them?
One of the main problems the new government will have to face is the security crisis, exacerbated by the presence of organised crime, which affects people’s security and democratic governance, as it interferes in electoral processes and limits the activities of human rights defenders.
Another key issue is the migration crisis, which needs responses in terms of economic development and the protection of human rights as well as in terms of security.
Environmental management also faces pressing challenges, such as water scarcity in several regions. Environmental policies developed so far have not been enough to combat pollution, protect natural resources and improve people’s quality of life.
To address crime, Sheinbaum has emphasised the need to strengthen the National Guard, although there are many doubts about the effectiveness of this approach. There have been few proposals on the environment.
To find real solutions, it will be crucial for the new government to maintain an ongoing dialogue with civil society, the scientific community and other key stakeholders. A firm commitment to transparency, accountability and full respect for human rights is also needed.
Ultimately, ability to deliver results that improve living conditions and build a more secure, just and sustainable future for all Mexicans will be crucial to the new government’s legitimacy.
Civic space in Mexico is rated ‘repressed’ by the CIVICUS Monitor.
Get in touch with the Avina Foundation through its website or Facebook, Instagram and Twitter accounts, and connect with Anaid on LinkedIn or Twitter.
